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North Korea will be able to field a reliable, nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile as early as next year, U.S. officials have concluded in a confidential assessment that dramatically shrinks the timeline for when Pyongyang could strike North American cities with atomic weapons.
The new assessment by the Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), which shaves a full two years off the consensus forecast for North Korea's ICBM program, was prompted by recent missile tests showing surprising technical advances by the country's weapons scientists, at a pace beyond which many analysts believed was possible for the isolated communist regime.
The U.S. projection closely mirrors revised predictions by South Korean intelligence officials, who also have watched with growing alarm as North Korea has appeared to master key technologies needed to loft a warhead toward targets thousands of miles away.
The finding further increases the pressure on U.S. and Asian leaders to halt North Korea's progress before it can threaten the world with nuclear-tipped missiles. President Trump, during his visit to Poland earlier this month, vowed to confront Pyongyang "very strongly" to stop its missile advances.
Already, the aggressive testing regime put in place in recent months has allowed North Korea to validate its basic designs, putting it within a few months of starting industrial production, the officials said. The DIA and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to address any classified assessments.
The intelligence community is closely monitoring the expanding threat from North Korea." One of the few remaining technical hurdles is the challenge of atmospheric "reentry" - the ability to design a missile that can pass through the upper atmosphere without damage to the warhead.
Officials there last year displayed a sphere-shaped device the regime described as a miniaturized warhead, but there as been no public confirmation that this milestone has been achieved. Preparations reportedly have been underway for several months for what would be the country's sixth underground atomic test.
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